Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Boise, ID

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 10 2001

MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK PRODUCING DIURNAL CONVECTION AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 2 SEPARATE MOISTURE BANDS AFFECTING THE REGION.
EASTERN MOISTURE BAND ROTATING AROUND WEST SIDE OF STATIONARY UPPER
HIGH CENTER NM AREA AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN ID, THOUGH BRUSHING
AFFECT TO EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY BOI MOUNTAIN ZONE. WESTERN
MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OFFSHORE NORTHERN CA THROUGH ORE. SEVERAL NORTHEAST-MOVING
S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IN SHORT-TERM. 1ST ALONG ORE/CA/NV
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING NORTH THROUGH ORE WITH BEST DYNAMICS
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST WEST OF CWFA. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING/SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES AND WESTERN
BKE COUNTY ARE OF CONCERN THIS EVENING. SPOTTER CALLS AND FEW
SURFACE OBS SHOWING SPOTTY BUT WET SHOWERS AND SMALL HAIL. S/WV AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING NORTH TONIGHT DECREASING
SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LATER BKE COUNTY. SOUTHWEST ID
ZONES IN BETWEEN 2 SEPARATE MOISTURE BANDS FOR ISOLATE EVENING
CONVECTION AT BEST, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINS. WED LITTLE CHANGE
EASTERN ZONES WHILE 2ND S/WV IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 35N/130W
AT 20Z LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN CA BY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW
INSTABILITY AGAIN CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE IN AFTERNOON AND LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT. SIMILAR PATTERN
CONTINUES THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS.

FRI/SAT LITTLE CHANGE TO PATTERN OF WEAK S/WVS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES WITH LIMITED MOISTURE FROM OFFSHORE
TROUGH. ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. EXTENDED MODELS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODELS BEGINNING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEW MODELS USE MUCH
STRONGER TROUGH CROSSING ALEITIAN CHAIN SAT TO DEVELOP DEEP CLOSED
LOW CENTER NEAR NORTHWEST COAST BY MON. WITH A STRONG/STATIONARY
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL U.S. AND FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION FORECAST FOR 160-170W PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL NEED TO
DIG SOME ALONG NORTHWEST COAST. BUT MRF INTENSITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO DEEP AND 12Z AVN A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IS ECMWF.
WILL COOL TEMPS SOME BEGINNING SUN IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF MRF/AVN LEVELS. PARKER

.BOI...NONE.