Severe Thunderstorm Warning 439, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
218 PM CST THU NOV 29 2001

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY MOVING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS
OF THIS WRITING.  STILL WAITING FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER TO
GET GOING, BUT EXPECT IT SOON.  VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN LA, AND THIS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE.

SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP, BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THIS SOMEWHAT.  WITH
MSAS LI VALUES RANGING FROM 0 TO -3 OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH
LOW LEVEL JET STILL FORECAST OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK, STILL EXPECT SEVERE OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE.

SPC HAS MODERATE RISK OVER OUR AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WORDING IN THE ZONES.

EXPECT FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 00Z, AND IT SHOULD BE
EXITING THE STATE BY 06Z.

WILL LET CURRENT FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE.  RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN AS HEAVY
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED OVER CURRENT WATCH AREA, AND WITH FRONT
SPEEDING UP, RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE SPEEDING UP AND EXITING THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING.  MUCH OF
THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL BE FALLING OVER AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALABAMA THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN.

THE FINAL WORRY THIS EVENING DEALS WITH WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  RIGHT NOW, OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  PLAN ON HOLDING OFF RIGHT
NOW, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

FCSTID = 73
HSV   44  55  37  60 / 100   0   0   0
BHM   47  58  38  63 / 100   0   0   0
MGM   50  62  42  65 / 100   0   0   0

.BMX...
AL...NONE.

ALZ001>050-292045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 PM CST THU NOV 29 2001

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS PARTS EAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WEST TENNESSEE...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI...
TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS...AND THESE STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  DAMAGE WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE ON
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
BE ACTIVATED...AND MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.