Severe Thunderstorm Warning 415, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
317 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN STORE...AND USERS SENSITIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD CHECK STAFFING NEEDS.  SEVERE STORMS NOW ACROSS THE MS
RIVER...AND WILL GET INTO ALABAMA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON.  SPC CURRENTLY HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA...WITH CAVEAT
THAT IF INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO GREATER THAN EXPECTED SOLAR
HEATING...THEN RISK MAY BE UPGRADED.  AT ANY RATE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN ZONES...AND MOST LIKELY BE
MORE SPECIFIC WITH DAMAING WIND/TORNADO WORDING.

STORMS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM THE EAST TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FRONT
SEEMS TO STALL AND SOME MODELS KEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALONG EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.

HARD TO LOCK ON EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS DAYS 3-7...BUT IT IS APPARENT
WE HAVE GONE FROM A TOTALLY TRANQUIL TO A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ALMOST OVERNIGHT.

HSV 071/052/066/045 +811
BHM 072/055/069/048 +911
MGM 076/058/072/050 8832

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-241700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOCATED FROM LINCOLN NEBRASKA...TO LITTLE ROCK
ARKANSAS...TO EASTERN TEXAS...WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY.  OUT
AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...A STRONG SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA BY 8 AM...AND REACH INTERSTATE 65 AROUND NOON.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR TODAY.  THIS RISK MAY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS WESTERN
ALABAMA...FROM LAUDERDALE COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO LAMAR COUNTY...ARE
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH VALID UNTIL 11 AM.  AS THE SQUALL MOVES CLOSER
TO WESTERN ALABAMA THE WATCH AREA WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MILES PER HOUR...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  STAY TUNED FOR LATER
STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.