Severe Thunderstorm Warning 378, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
250 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
COOL OFF SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SLOW TO GET TO ALABAMA TODAY.  BUT IT IS AT OUR
WESTERN DOOR STEP.  EXPECT THE MASS OF RAIN TO ENTER WESTERN ALABAMA
BY 6 PM...MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 9 PM...AND EASTERN
ALABAMA BY 11 PM.  EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER
INITIALLY SO WILL BREAK ZONES UP IN SUCH A WAY THAT BETWEEN
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 65 CAN WORD SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.  IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.  DYNAMICS
ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH LI/S ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TONIGHT.  MAJOR CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WILL KEEP
PLACEMENT IN CURRENT PACKAGE.  WILL ALSO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TOMORROW FOR LAST TWO ZONES /AROUND MONTGOMERY/ AS PW/S ARE AROUND
TWO INCHES.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WEST TOMORROW.  POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT WEST
TO EAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAST TWO ZONES.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERESTING.
IF EVERYTHING SETS UP THE WAY THE MODELS LOOK RIGHT NOW...COULD SEE
SEVERE WEATHER AREA WIDE.

IN THE EXTENDED:  THINGS DRY OUT AND COOL OFF.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
HSV 63/75/63/73 +588
BHM 64/75/65/74 +558
MGM 65/80/66/78 9858

.BHM...NONE.

80

ALZ001>050-112000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH TONIGHT.  WITH SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...IN
THE AREA FROM THE CITIES OF FLORENCE...JASPER...AND SELMA...
WESTWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEY WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOVEMENT...THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA BETWEEN 5
AND 7 PM THIS EVENING...INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...ESPECIALLY THOSE
IN WESTERN ALABAMA...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR...LOCAL TV AND RADIO...
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS TONIGHT.

ALZ001>050-112215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL START AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.   A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF ALABAMA SATURDAY.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EITHER ALONG...OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION...EXPECT FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. TIMING AND
FORECASTS MAY CHANGE DUE TO LATER OBSVERATIONAL AND COMPUTER MODEL
OUTPUT.  YOU ARE URGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS. STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.