Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
112 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

VORT MAX CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IS KICKING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MOVING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...SO FEELING IS THAT SCATTERED POPS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN FRONT CLOSES IN ON ALABAMA TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE NEARING NORTHERN
ALABAMA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...THEN SPREADING
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY.  BEST BET FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE AMPLE TIME TO HEAT UP AND DESTABLIZE BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES IN.  RIGHT NOW SPC HAS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR TOMORROW...AND I REALLY CANT ARGUE WITH THAT. DONT EXPECT
AN ALL DAY RAIN...AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WILL ONLY WORD THEM AS SUCH AT THIS TIME.

FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH A RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.  CHANTAL COULD
MAKE THINGS INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES IT INTO THE GULF AS A FULL FLEDGED HURRICANE.

HSV 70/88 66/88 65 352
BHM 71/90 67/90 66 354
MGM 72/91 70/91 68 354

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-182027-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
127 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.  THE
COMBINATION OF THE STORM COMPLEX AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 59.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECAST...AND BE ALERT FOR WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HUNTSVILLE IS 1
BIRMINGHAM IS 1
MONTGOMERY IS 1

FOR MORE INFORMATION AND A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT A WET MICROBURST IS...
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX/HWO/HWO.HTML