Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
318 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2001

BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (AS SEEN FROM THETA-E AXIS AND LI
AXIS) EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED THROUGH THIS
CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO WEST OF
THIS AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
INTO NORTH ALABAMA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SO SOME POPS WILL BE
CARRIED FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY RADAR COVERAGE AT
TIME OF ISSUANCE.

OTHERWISE AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO DROP FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON TUESDAY...AND
WILL REFLECT THIS IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES CONTINUING TO AFFECT FORECAST AREA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS REMAINING ACROSS REGION...THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WOULD SUGGEST ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THERE BY THAT TIME.

FAIRLY NORMAL MID JULY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH MOST HIGHS 90 TO 95 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS SHOULD KEEP US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH MAY
STILL NEED HEADLINE FOR HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 SOUTHERN SECTIONS
FOR TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...LOOK FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS
AND MAX TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS.

HSV 073/093 072/092 4Z322
BHM 074/093 072/093 2323
MGM 074/094 073/093 2433

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-092013-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
113 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
SOME THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FACTOR:
HU!NTSVILLE IS 1,
BIRMINGHAM IS 1,
MONTGOMERY IS 1,

1 BEING THE LOWEST...AND 5 THE HIGHEST THREAT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION AND A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT A WET MICROBURST IS,
SEE OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX/HWO.HTML.