Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
945 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SPC UPDGRADE TO
MODERATE RISK.  SURFACE MESO ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE NEAR MLU.  STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF ALABAMA...WHILE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO WESTERN GULF.

MORNING RAOBS (JAN/BMX) SHOWED MOIST LOW LEVELS...BUT DRY AIR FROM
ABOUT 800 OR 750 MB UP...AND TO NO SURPRISE VISIBLE SATALLIE PIX
SHOW THIN SPOTS AND HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE WARM SECTOR
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.  ALSO NOTED ON SOUNDINGS A MID-LEVEL
THERMAL CAP.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT ALL THAT STRONG IN ALABAMA RIGHT NOW.
BUT AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...THAT SHOULD CHANGE...AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY (AS THEY ARE NOW
DOING IN LA AND SW MS).

EXPECTED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD HELP TO ERODE CAP...JUST ABOUT THE
TIME OF MAX AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  THINK THERES LITTLE QUESTION
THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY.  QUESTION IS THE DEGREE OR MODE OF
ORGANIZATION.  IF SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND WINDS BACK
MORE AND INCREASE IN SPEED...THEN THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WOULD
INCREASE.

ALL IN ALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.  WILL ISSUE AN
UPDATE BY 17Z TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...AND MAY ALSO EXTEND THE
SEVERE WEATHER WORDING FARTHER NORTH.

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-162145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA...FROM NEAR
HAMILTON TO ATHENS...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH.  SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.  AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOIST GULF AIR
ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY...
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AROUND NOONTIME...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 9 PM ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE FROM WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH
ALABAMA...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND 2 INCHES.  THE
RAIN WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENAING.