Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
321 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

BIG STORM SYSTEM POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BE HAD...AND WITH ADDED HEAT
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS.  PLUS...ITS HARD NOT TO NOTICE THE ONGOING CONVENTION IN
WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.  WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AREAWIDE TODAY...
WITH CATAGORICAL IN NORTH AND WEST...TO LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  GIVEN SPC OUTLOOK...WILL ENHANCE WORDING
IN APPROPRIATE AREAS AS WELL.

EXPECT SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN THE
BIG FINAL PUSH OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.  RAIN
SHOULD EXIT AREA AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH (YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE BHM WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF 12Z).  PRETTY COOL
AIRMASS IN WAKE OF FRONT.  DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A RECORD BREAKER AT
THIS POINT...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAN KEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE WEEK.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
INVOLVED WITH SHORTWAhVES ROTATING AROUND BIG UPPER LOW.

HSV 083/059/067/048 ++2
BHM 085/062/072/050 783
MGM 087/066/078/053 565

.BHM...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
110 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1240 PM    GORDO                     AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/21/01   PICKENS                        DIME SIZE HAIL AND ONE
                                          TREE DOWN BLOCKING A
                                          ROADWAY IN GORDO.

1250 PM    ECHOLA                    AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/21/01   TUSCALOOSA                     DIME SIZE HAIL FELL NEAR
                                          ECHOLA.

1257 PM    TUSCALOOSA                AL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/21/01   TUSCALOOSA                     DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
                                          REPORTED NORTH OF
                                          TUSCALOOSA IN THE YELLOW
                                          CREEK AREA.

ALZ001>038-040>050-212000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 264 IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH
   AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 5 PM...

THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
PARTICULARLY IN A BROAD BAND FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIRMINGHAM TO
ANNISTON...WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM...AND SOME OF
THESE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY EAST OF A WEDOWEE TO SELMA LINE.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...BUT THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AND THESE WILL MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG...AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL
STABILIZE SOMEWHAT BY MIDNIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THAT TIME.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.