Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
303 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2001

LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENT MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS MORNING.  THIS WAS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING OVER
THE AREA FROM PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS BATCH
OF CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TAKING ON ANY SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS, BUT DUE TO ITS WEST-EAST ORIENTATION, IT POSES A
HEAVY RAINFALL PROBLEM.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  LOOKING TO THE
NORTHWEST,  LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  SEVERAL WATCHES IN PLACE TO
THE NORTHWEST.

MANY VARIABLES IN TODAY'S FORECAST,  WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PART OF ALABAMA, LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA, COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH ALL THIS WILL ADD SEVERE WORDING IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MODELS GENERALLY SHOW WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, AS A SURFACE LOW TREKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.  COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH PART OF
ALABAMA AROUND MIDDAY, AND TO NEAR A DHN-MOB LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

COOLER AIR WILL SLIDE IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING IN SOME CLOUDS,
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN, AND A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR.  65<

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS.............
HSV TB 075/051 071/044 055 65630
BHM TB 078/054 074/046 059 65+40
MGM TB 082/059 079/047 063 65550=

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>038-040>050-151400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2001

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.  THE BAND OF STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING.  IF THE STORMS
KEEP THEIR PRESENT STRENGTH...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING.  THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.  A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

NORTH ALABAMA...STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD ACTIVATE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.