Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2001

FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE HIGH HEAT INDEX...THE CAP STRENGTH...AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS ADVANCING COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE STATE.

HEAT INDICIES ARE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE OVER MUCH OF CNTRL ND THIS
AFTN. WL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING THIS EVE FOR MINOT...AND FOR
TONIGHT AT BIS AND JMS. COLD FRONT WL NOT GET TO BIS UNTIL
MORNING...SO HIGH DWPTS AND LOWS IN THE 70S WL CONTINUE FOR BIS AND
JMS.

COMPLICATED WX SCENARIO FOR TSTMS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MID
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE WI H7 TEMPS OF 14 THIS MORNING...AND FCST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE INDICATED STRENGTHENING OF CAP.
CONVECTIVE SFC TEMPS ARE 103 TO 107F. SFC LOWS THIS AFTN IN SERN MT
AND SRN SASK...AND EAST-WEST SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS ND WITH SLY/SELY
WINDS AND DWPTS N THE 70S ACROSS SRN ND AND ELY/SELY WINDS AND DWPTS
ON THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN NERN
MT AT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN VCNTY OF SFC LOW. TSTMS HAVE
MOVED INTO NWRN ND...AND WERE HIGH BASED. DO NOT SEEM TO BE PUNCHING
THROUGH THE CAP ATTM. ALSO SOME ACTIVITY ALONG E-W SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS ND. ALONG WITH THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBILITY OF TSTMS IN WY
MOVING INTO WRN ND WITH MODELS ADVERTISING H500 VORT ENERGY MOVING
NWD SLOWLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER LIFTING SOURCE IS THE SFC COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS STA...BEGINNING AROUND 06Z IN THE NW
CORNER...AND BEING IN VCNTY OF BIS AROUND 12 WED MORNING. THINK
MODELS ARE PUTTING THE MOST PCPN IN NRN/NERN ND TO MANITOBA AND NRN
MINNESOTA ALONG E-W WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE NWD THIS
EVE. H850 AND H700 OMEGA INDICATES LOTS OF UPWARD MOTION FROM 06Z TO
12Z IN THIS AREA. WL MENTION SVR TSTM POSSIBILITIES.

FOR WED...COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF CWA BY 18Z WED...BUT CAPES WELL
ABOVE 1000 AND LIS WELL BELOW ZERO ON THE NW SIDE OF THE FRONT.
H700-500 DIVERGENCE OF Q SUGGESTS LOTS OF UPWARD MOTION/INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT KEEPING GOOD CHC TSTMS SRN COUNTIES ON WED...EVEN INTO
WED EVE. THEN CLEARING WED NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THU AND RELIEF
FROM HEAT.

WL PUT BEST CHC PCPN TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTH...AND IN THE
SOUTH ON WED/WED NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...H500 NWLY FLOW KEEPS DRY SFC HIGHS MOVING
THROUGH STA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

.BIS...HEAT ADVISORY...MOT THIS EVE
                       BIS AND JMS TONIGHT

VINING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    CARRINGTON                ND   1 INCH HAIL
08/07/01   FOSTER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

1008 PM    3 SW STANLEY              ND   .75 INCH HAIL
08/07/01   MOUNTRAIL                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

NDZ009-017-080535-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILLISTON ND
1035 PM CDT (935 PM MDT) TUE AUG 7 2001

A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS MCKENZIE
AND EASTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...PERIODS OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE. USE CAUTION TO ASSURE SAFETY DURING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

ASSID