Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
322 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE WET SCENARIO FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF NOTE
BROUGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS MOVED OUT AND IS NO LONGER OF GREAT CONCERN.  THE SECOND IS
NOW MOVING OUT OF KANSAS AND INTO IOWA...THROUGH WW714.  THIS HAS
INDUCED A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO MINNESOTA AS OF 18Z.  CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INSTABILITY HAS CAUSED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  THIRD DISTURBANCE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON ITS NORTHEASTERN FLANK.  FINALLY...
LAST DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST...
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT.

MODEL INITIALIZATION REASONABLE THIS MORNING.  EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.  ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW SHOULD BRING
THEM NORTHEAST...PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ENDING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING AVERAGED 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM
WINONA-DECORAH AND EAST.  RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED ANOTHER
1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL POSE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
ITS MOTION...TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT.  WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.

THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY.  ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA GRADUALLY MOVES
IN.  SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT.

TEMPERATURES QUITE DIFFICULT SINCE THE FRONT SHOULD BE TRAVERSING
RIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 08/12Z.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF LA
CROSSE.

COOLER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS.  MAY PULL BACK ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN
SPEED/TIMING OF SYSTEM EXITING.  NOT VERY COMFORTABLE DOING SO GIVEN
THE NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS.  WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...AS ASCERTAINING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SYSTEMS THAT FAR OUT A BIT
UNREALISTIC.SYSTEM TOO DIFFICULT.

COORDINATED WITH MKX/GRB/DVN.

.LSE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...IAZ010-011-029-030-
       MNZ088-096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

KRC

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-080200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1155 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

HAZARD - SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TIMING - THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOCATION - AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...AND
MOST OF NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEFINITIVELY
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WIND SHEAR
INCREASES...SO A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND.

SPOTTER INFORMATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL REPORTS WILL CERTAINLY BE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THOMPSON

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-080300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

HAZARD - SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TIMING - THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND ALL OF TONIGHT FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

LOCATION - AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...AND
MOST OF NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

DISCUSSION - ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DEFINITIVELY
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING WIND SHEAR
SUPPORTS A FEW STORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

SPOTTER INFORMATION - SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL REPORTS WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THOMPSON

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ087-088-094>096-WIZ041>044-053>055-061-
072200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
350 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL IOWA WERE MOVING QUICKLY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING RAPIDLY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED.

PERSONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THOMPSON