Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2001

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Gaylord, MI

June 9, 2001Iosco County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 9, 2001, 6:39 PM EDT for Iosco County, Michigan. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2001, 6:39 PM EDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2001, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Gaylord, MI
Area: Whole counties

County Iosco County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2343 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KAPX 092239
SVRAPN
MIC069-092330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  IOSCO COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH BRANCH...OR ABOUT 16
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLENNIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REACH...
  HALE AROUND 645 PM EDT
  INTERSECTION OF M-55 AND M-65 AROUND 655 PM EDT
  WHITTEMORE AROUND 700 PM EDT
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH 
LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING.

REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. HAIL
OF THIS SIZE CAN DAMAGE WINDOWS...ALUMINUM SIDING...AND VEHICLES WHEN
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 9, 4:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 4:07 PM EDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2001

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS MICHIGAN ALOFT IS WORKING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

12Z MODELS ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
NEXT MAIN SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE AVN
IS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ETA AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NGM.
SOME OF THE STRENGTH OF THE AVN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK FROM A MCS THAT SHOULD FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA SOLUTION...BUT HAVE
SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE A BIT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CLOSE AND REASONABLE...SO HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR.

TONIGHT...UPPER WAVE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL EXIT THE
REGION THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE FOR THE EVENING UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS AND THE
HEATING OF THE DAY SUBSIDES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NEXT SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA)
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND HAS DECENT DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHER
POSITIVE FACTORS FOR CONVECTION INCLUDE MODEST RRQ JET FORCING AND
STEEP SURFACE TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES (ABOUT 7 C/KM). MODEL SOUNDINGS
YIELD CAPE VALUES BY AFTERNOON OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WIND FIELDS
INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS...ENDING AS THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION BY MORNING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A MOSTLY QUIET AND MILDER PERIOD AS
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RIDGE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY...THOUGH MOST
HAVE TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT AND SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK (THE
CANADIAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER THROUGHOUT). THE CANADIAN AND
MRF ARE IN BEST AGREEMENT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR TIMING GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS. CURRENT CANADIAN/MRF TIMING IS ALSO SUPPORTED FAIRLY
WELL BY THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FOLLOWING THIS THINKING...HAVE
PULLED SHOWER AND STORM MENTION FROM WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTED IT LATER
INTO THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. ONE OTHER CONCERN COMES
TUES?DAY...WHERE MODELS HINT AT A PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE
WESTERN U.S. TROF AND BRINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT.
THE LATEST AVN EXTENSION ALSO SUPPORTS ADDING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
TUESDAY.

.APX...NONE.

BAK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 9, 4:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    1 E CHEBOYGAN             MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   CHEBOYGAN                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, Jun 9, 4:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
449 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    GRACE                     MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   PRESQUEISLE                    REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 9, 6:11 PM EDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
611 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0607 PM    2 NW BOLTON               MI   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   ALPENA                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

BAK

Local storm report, Jun 9, 6:26 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
626 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2001

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    POSEN                     MI   .88 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   PRESQUE ISLE                   REPORTED BY FIRE AND
                                          RESCUE.

0620 PM    CATHRO                    MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   ALPENA                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0625 PM    LUPTON                    MI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/09/01   OGEMAW                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

BAK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 3:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Cheboygan	28 min
Jun 9, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Presque Isle	73 min
Jun 9, 5:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Presque Isle	63 min
Jun 9, 6:05 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	APX	Alpena	55 min
Jun 9, 6:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Ogemaw	46 min
Jun 9, 6:47 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	APX	Gladwin	43 min
Jun 9, 6:55 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	APX	Ogemaw	35 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2001 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2001

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.