Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

A COMPLICATED SITUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE AREA AND WILL PUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF EVENTS. RADAR SHOWS SOME LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PLACE BUT APPEARS TO BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DRYLINE IS POISED IN EASTERN NM AND SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA BEFORE DARK. AN INSTABILITY LINE APPEARS
STRETCHED FROM SE CO TO SW KS AND INTO OK. THIS WILL PUT OUR NE IN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO WORK ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AT MIDWEEK AND PROVIDES FURTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS.

NW FLOW ALOFT HANGS ON INTO THE LATE WEEK AS A WEAKER SYSTEM
SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INDICATORS STILL SHOW A DRIER
LATE WEEK...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THERE.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

WYNNE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-272100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KENTON AND BOISE CITY OKLAHOMA...
TO DUMAS AND LAKE MEREDITH...TO PANHANDLE...TO SOUTH OF CLARENDON.

TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SATURDAY
EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER TWO BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. BY
MID AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY OR
ALL OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES IS VERY UNSTABLE...AND
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...AND
SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.

FOR THE MODERATE RISK AREA...FAVORABLE TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE RISK AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
AS EARLY AS 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD EXPECT TO CALLED UPON
DURING THIS EVENING AS WELL.

COCKRELL