Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2001

MAJOR CHANGES TO PNHDLS WX TO OCCUR DURING NEXT 48 HRS. WEEKEND WILL
KICK OFF WITH STG TO SVR TSRA WITH LCLLY HVY RA...THEN WRAP UP WITH
BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

UPR LVL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL ASSIST IN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WX
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH EACH
OTHER OVER SWRN U.S. ONE HAS SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS WITH ABUNDANT MID
AND UPR LVL MOISTURE AND IS MVG NNE OVER NWRN MEX THIS MORNING. THE
OTHER IS ACTUALLY A BIT STRONGER AND IS MVG SE JUST OFF SRN CA
COAST. PRIMARY QUESTION REGARDING THESE TWO DISTURBANCES IS WHETHER
OR NOT THEY WILL PHASE. DESPITE SHORT RANGE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING
STRENGTH OF TWO SYSTEMS...ETA DOES ATTEMPT TO PHASE THE TWO SYSTEMS
WHILE THE AVN/NGM DO NOT. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE TWO WILL COME VERY
CLOSE TO PHASING WHICH WOULD TEND TO SLOW THEIR EWD PROGRESS A BIT.
THIS WOULD DIMINISH POTENTIAL FOR SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN NM TO
ACCELERATE EWD AS FAST AS THE PROGS ARE SUGGESTING...PARTICULARLY
THE ETA. THEREFORE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA IS VERY
LIKELY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH BROAD CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS
IN ADVANCE OF UPR DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRONG
INSOLATION...ABUNDANT BL MOISTURE WILL STILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN. SVR WX STILL A GOOD BET AS
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ROTATE...
EVEN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. AS SHOWERS AND STORMS EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS THEN LIKELY AN MCS THIS EVENING...LOCALLY HVY RAINS WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE PNHDLS SUN NIGHT USHERING
IN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL MON AND TUE. MUCH DRIER BL AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS WELL...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...MODERATING TEMPS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING MID-WEEK MAY BRING ABT A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0956 AM    20NW MIAMI                TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/19/01   ROBERTS                        REPORTED BY ROBERTS COUNTY
                                          SO

0956 AM    20NW MIAMI                TX   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/19/01   ROBERTS                        REPORTED BY ROBERTS COUNTY
                                          SO

1028 AM    15NW MIAMI                TX   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/19/01   ROBERTS                        REPORTED BY ROBERTS COUNTY
                                          SO

JW