Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
205 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
APPROACHING BOISE CITY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WERE ADVECTING
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
500 J/KG IN THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN 850 MB JET WAS
POSITIONED ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A 500 MB VORTICITY CENTER APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. STRONG PVA WAS PRESENT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WORK THERE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES...RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD STAY RAIN IN MOST AREAS OR COULD
BE MIXED WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST
WHERE ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE. AS THE UPPER-LOW SWINGS THROUGH
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW PASSES
TO THE NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL MONDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL HOWEVER...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD
DEVELOP AND DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY
WARM UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THE FRONT MATERIALIZES...HIGBH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

PRELIM CCF...
AMA 36/44 28/49 29 32-
DHT 33/40 26/47 28 43-

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-102300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALL
OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM CENTER OVER ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF COLORADO AND KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM WILL COMBINE
WITH THESE CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING. AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
SURFACE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY( THREAT.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COBB