Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CST SAT NOV 3 2001

FAIRLY WEAK FLOW BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FAR REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
WEAK FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. FARTHER WEST...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WAS SITUATED OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
MEANWHILE...COOL SURFACE RIDGE HAD NOSED ITS WAY INTO MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ZONE PACKAGE INHERITED FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN WELL WITH ONLY
RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

LITTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH
NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION WITH
RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK TO
MODERATE SHORTWAVES PASSES OVER THE WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
U.S.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE COOL MOIST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT WARM LAYER A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...REDEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG APPEAR ON COURSE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. DECIDED TO HOLD BACK ON ISSUING DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY DECREASE JUST A BIT. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
DECAYING FRONT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY FROM
AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.

FAIRLY BENIGN WX FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALONG
WITH TAIL END OF AVN HINTING AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF CWFA TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT SUB-
TROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ACROSS AREA. AT THIS TIME...THINK
THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO CREATE
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR VIRGA SHOWERS. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP MAY COME AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PASSES AND DRIVES A MODERATE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

JH