Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
150 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MAKE INITIATION PROBABLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS CONTINUING THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING.
A SECOND VORT MAX WILL PUSH SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN COLORADO SATURDAY
WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WITH INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ALOFT WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING AS AN THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY GETS WASHED OUT TO THE SOUTH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD GET GOING...RETURNING WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY DRY THINGS OUT A BIT WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN
WAVES ALOFT. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AMA 65/90 62/84 59 323
DHT 62/88 60/82 57 222

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-242100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF LINE FORM GUYMON
OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONG UPPER AIR SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE
LIFTED OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP
THE AIR RISE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

GOEHRING