Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH A
TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A SQUALL
LINE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES AND PUSHING
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LINE PUSHES EAST...HIGH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. NEW RUC
DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.
ALSO...RUC SHOWS WINDS PICKING UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AT 00Z
AND SWEEPING INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BY 03Z. HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
TIL MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY MORNING
LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL BRING PLENTY OF ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL TRIM THE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THE EAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERAIOD.

PRELIM CCF
AMA 45/75 46/80 50 500
DHT 43/72 43/77 46 400

AMA
DHT

.AMA...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZNS 001>020.
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ZNS 001>003.

CB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-062300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2001

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT
GREATER THAN 50 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG DAMAGING
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES. SPOTTER GROUPS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SHOULD REMAIN
IN A HIGH STATE OF READINESS AND BE PREPARED FOR LIKELY ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SP