Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
302 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AROUND THE CWA. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
AIDING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. NO SIGN OF THE
DRYLINE AS DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING AROUND 55 F AT KCQC INCREASING TO
70 F AT KLBL.

MODELS HINT AT A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THESE
FEATURES A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN THE CURRENT WV LOOP AND SUSPECT
THE MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE AVN) ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TONIGHT. WEAK STEERING FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH PW VALUES COULD
BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL NOT MENTION IN ZONES BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. EXPECT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES...SO WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS THERE. LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SUBSIDENT
REGION ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF T.D. ALLISON SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION AND WILL
RETAIN POPS. MORE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL
KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL RETAIN CURRENT FORECAST.

PRELIM CCF:

AMA 062/083 060/0S89 62 06323
DHT 061/082 059/090 60 06423

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATT

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-072100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PUT THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES IN THE BEST POSITION FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SPOTTER GROUPS
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GOEHRING