Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST
TEXAS. STRATUS BEHIND FRONT HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FROM WARMING TODAY BUT IN SOUTHERN ZONES...
TEMPS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES REACHING 2400 J/KG AT THIS
TIME IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL INCH ITS WAY
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING ALLOWING INSTABILITY AXIS TO EXPAND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS WELL.  WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS...60
PERCENT...IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED AND SERVE AS FOCUS.  WESTERN ZONES ARE IN A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK WEST LATER TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.  THIS WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS.

FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.  WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO AFFECT THE PANHANDL/ES EACH DAY.  WILL
KEEP LOW POPS AND WARMING TREND GOING AS PER PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

AMA EB 60/84 60/86 60 223
DHT EB 55/82 59/84 59 223

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SP