Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA
242 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

FNT SLOWLY MOVG E. MODELS ALL CUT OFF THE UPPER SYSTEM BY SUN. THIS
WL SLOW FNT E PUSH AND EVENTUALLY STALL ALG THE CST. ETA AND AVN AND
SIMILAR WITH THE AVN A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THEN THE ETA. HAVE A
SERIES OF LOWS GOING ALG THIS FNT. FIRST LOW WL PASS BY LATE TNGT
AND MOV N OF THE AREA ON SAT. THIS WL KEEP PLENTY OF CONVECTION
GOING TNGT AND WL HOLD POPS UP TNGT BECAUSE OF THIS. NOT A LOT OF
SHEAR EXCP IN THE BUT GREAT INSTABLILTY TNGT. SHD KEEP TSTMS GOING
BUT WITH BEST CHC OF SVR W. MORE CONCERNED WITH HVY RN AS TRAINING
POSSIBLE AND HIGH PW.

ON SAT AS LOW MOVES N GET A 85H JET ALG THE NE CST WHICH WL HELP THE
CONVECTION THEN. SHD BE STILL QUITE UNSTABLE ACRS THE AREA. WENT
LKLY AGAIN BUT HIGHEST POPS ALG THE CST. WITH HI PRECIP WATERS MAY
GO WITH RN HVY.

ON SAT NGT AND SUN WITH TROF TO W AND FNT ACRS THE ERN PART OF THE
AREA WL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRAINING OF ECHOES LATER TNGT AS LOW MOVES UP
BUT FOR NOW FEEL MOST PROBLEMS W OF CWA.

GOING A BLEND OF MAV FWC FOR TEMPS. MORE CLDS SAT AND SUN HOLDING
TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE DAY BUT STILL HUMID SO LOWS NR 70.

FCSTID = 92
SBY   69  83  68  83 /  50  60  60  40
OXB   70  81  70  80 /  50  60  60  40
ECG   71  85  70  82 /  50  60  60  40
ORF   73  85  72  82 /  50  60  60  40
PHF   71  83  70  83 /  50  60  60  40
AKQ   70  83  67  82 /  70  60  50  30
RIC   70  83  67  82 /  70  60  50  30
FVX   69  83  67  82 /  70  60  50  30

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.

BILLET

VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-230300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
705 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA UNTIL 7 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH

AMELIA              BRUNSWICK           CAROLINE
CHESTERFIELD        CUMBERLAND          DINWIDDIE
FLUVANNA            GOOCHLAND           HANOVER
HENRICO             LOUISA              LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG         NOTTOWAY            POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD       CITY OF RICHMOND

THIS WATCH REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 466.
SKY WARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCHE OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MALOIT

VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-230300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO ADD COLONIAL HEIGHTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
720 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA UNTIL 7 PM. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
AND INDEPENDENT CITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH

AMELIA              BRUNSWICK           CAROLINE
CHESTERFIELD        CUMBERLAND          DINWIDDIE
FLUVANNA            GOOCHLAND           HANOVER
HENRICO             LOUISA              LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG         NOTTOWAY            POWHATAN
PRINCE EDWARD       CITY OF RICHMOND    CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS

THIS WATCH REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 466.
SKY WARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCHE OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO TOHE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MALOIT