Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2001

LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGE SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ALONG SW
PORTION OF CWA...FROM KFVX TO KAVC TO KRZZ. S OF THAT
BOUNDARY...TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MSAS
LI FIELDS SHOWING -5 TO -8 ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC...WITH MOST
UNSTABLE AIR OVER COASTAL PLAIN. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWING WEAK VORT
MAX OVER ERN KY. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO DRIFT OVER OUR CWA TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING EXPECT SCT TSTRMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...BASICALLY OVER SW PORTIONS OF CWA. CAPE AND SHEAR FIELDS
SUGGEST MAINLY PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SW SECTIONS...BUT A
LITTLE MORE SHEAR/POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD STORMS
BUILD FARTHER N. ALSO...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX
TONIGHT...MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. ETA AND NGM BOTH HINTING AT SUCH A
DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEL UVV FIELDS AND MODEL PRECIP FIELDS.

MORE UNSETTLED WX ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...WITH ONLY CHANGE THE
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT FARTHER N AS BOUNDARY LIFTS SOMEWHAT. AFTER
FRONTAL WAVE PASSES THU...FRONT DROPS S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MORE
STABLE AMS BUILDING IN FROM N TO S THU AND THU NIGHT. FRI THU SUN
LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRES IN PLACE. PLAN TO GO DRY FOR NOW DAYS 6 AND
7. SOME HINT OF A COLD FROPA IN NW FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
CLEAR IF IT WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIP HERE.

FCSTID = 18
SBY   68  81  69  75 /  40  40  40  40
OXB   65  74  67  71 /  40  40  40  40
ECG   71  83  69  81 /  30  30  30  50
ORF   71  83  69  81 /  30  30  30  50
PHF   70  85  69  81 /  40  30  30  50
AKQ   72  86  70  81 /  40  30  30  50
RIC   70  85  #69  81 /  40  30  30  50
FVX   70  85  69  81 /  40  30  30  50

.AKQ...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.

REILLY

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>098-052200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
612 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

ALL SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THE
60 MPH. AREAS WEST OF RICHMOND AND SOUTHWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 95 CAN
EXPECT THESE STORM THROUGH 9 PM.  THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE TIDEWATER AREA
AND NORTHERN OUTERBANKS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SKYWJARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...SO STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR FORECAST
UPDATES.

SCHUMANN

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>098-060600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
612 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

ALL SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THE
60 MPH. AREAS WEST OF RICHMOND AND SOUTHWARD ALONG INTERSTATE 95 CAN
EXPECT THESE STORM THROUGH 9 PM.  THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE TIDEWATER AREA
AND NORTHERN OUTERBANKS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...SO STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR FORECAST
UPDATES.

SCHUMANN