Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CST SAT JUN 23 2001

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE BASED AROUND CONVECTION
POSSIBILITIES AND TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL SCT
POP IN THE FORECAST GIVEN MODELS INSISTENCY ON FORMATION OF MCS JUST
OVER THE BORDER IN ND. A FEW STRAGLER STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE. HOWEVER CAPPING IS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND BNDRY LAYER CIN
INCREASES. IT IS INTERESTING TO VIEW THE SYNOPTIC MODELS AND THEIR
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK S/WS. OF COURSE THEY ARE NOT IN THE
SAME POSITION AS THEY RIDE THE RIDGE FROM THE FURTHER SOUTH AVN TO
THE FURTHERN NORTH ETA. IN ANY EVENT IT STILL APPEARS THAT ND WILL
BE MORE UNDER THE GUN. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE WELL
CAPPED WITH ANY NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
CWA. ON MONDAY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO EASTERN CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE.  MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT TOWARD
EVENING.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. ONLY MISSING INGREDIENT MIGHT BE LACK OF UVV
ENHANCING WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW HIGH SCT POP SHOULD
SUFFICE. AFTER CHECKING OUT 8H TEMPS...MUCH PREFERRED THE FWC MOS.
OZF ALREADY OUT.

TDK

.EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH
ALL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN PUSHES SOUTH DURING THE DAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE LOW MOVES FROM
MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DECENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE EAST AND THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WESTERN
CWA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY IN THE EASTERN CWA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY MILD DURING THE NIGHTS WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS THAT ARE
FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS.

AP

.ABR...NONE.