Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2001

MDLS FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES WITH
A S/W TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH A SFC COLD FRONT. THE SFC
COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS C SD LATE THIS AFTN WITH DWPTS POOLING
ALONG IT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
AND LIS FROM -1 TO -3. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN C AND SC SD. WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NC SD SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN. ALL 3
MDLS PUT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN FROM 00Z TO 12Z.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS NE SD AND WC
MN INTO THIS EVENING WITH S WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH. OVERALL...SKIES
OVER THE CWA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WINDS WILL GO TO THE NW AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE CWA. ON MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA WITH W WINDS
BECOMING SW IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WK S/W. NOT A LOT OF MEAN RH...SO
WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMP DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. THE MDLS SHOW S/W
ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON MON NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY/LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. THEY ALL DISAGREE ON THE
AMOUNT OF MEAN RH OVER THE AREA AND THE QPF. THEREFORE...WILL GO
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.
GUID SHOWS SOME SMALL POPS FOR MON NIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR TUES AND TUES NIGHT...IT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AS WK S/WS MOVE THROUGH. IT ALSO LOOKS WINDY ON TUES AS PER
MAV GUID AND BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE
COOLER BOTH TUES AND TUES NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.

.ABR...WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH 8 PM...NE SD AND WC MN.

MOHR

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2001

.A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME COULD BECOME SEVERE.

SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037-300500-
BROWN-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...EUREKA...FAULKTON...GROTON...
HIGHMORE...IPSWICH...MILLER AND REDFIELD
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME
COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH
WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-301600-
BIG
STONE-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIG STONE CITY...BRITTON...CLARK...CLEAR
LAKE...ESTELLINE...MILBANK...ORTONVILLE...SISSETON...WATERTOWN...
WEBSTER AND WHEATON
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND SOME COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HIGH WIND AND
LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

BINAU