Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 MDT THU JUN 21 2001

EXCEPT FOR THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
RESULTANT STEERING FLOW TO MOVE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...SYNOPTIC SCALE METEOROLOGY BECOMING LESS AND LESS OF A
FACTOR IN THE DAILY FORECASTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA SUCH THAT DIURNAL OROGRAPHIC THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED UNTIL A FEATURE ARRIVES TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. NO SUCH FEATURE FORESEEN IN THIS FORECAST. WITH THAT IN
MIND...EXPECT A GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 500 MB HIGH CENTER SETS UP OVER EASTERN AZ. BIT
OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY-SATURDAY DUE TO W
TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BRING WARMING TO THE
EAST...BUT MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH WITH SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE NEAR TERM IS WHETHER STORMS STRENGTHENING
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AT THIS WRITING WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TO
ROSWELL OVERNIGHT...PER THE MESO-ETA. IF THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE MAY
PUSH FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AT KFMN AND KGUP. WILL
WAIT TIL JUST BEFORE 430 PM BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL CALL ON THIS. 42

CSM

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-212200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 AM MDT THU JUN 21 2001

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT EASTERN HIGH PLAINS
LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN STILL PRODUCE
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SUFFERED LARGE WILDFIRES IN YEAR
2000 OR YEAR 2001. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
IN LINCOLN COUNTY...LOW TO MODERATE.
IN LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...LOW.
IN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...LOW.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
UNION...      HARDING...   QUAY...        CURRY...
ROOSEVELT...  COLFAX...    MORA...        SAN MIGUEL...
GUADALUPE...  DE BACA...

COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
EASTERN SANTA FE... EASTERN TORRANCE...

COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS
MAY BE REQUIRED...
NONE.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF. FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.