Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2001

UPSLOPE GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTED IN EARLY
CONVECTION EAST SLOPES OF SANGRES. FRONT DROPPING IN FROM NORTH THIS
AFTN/EVENING. SHORTWAVE MOVING SEWD ACROSS AREA TNGT LIKELY TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING TIL LATE EAST WITH SOME SVR PSBL THIS EVENING. WILL
ASSUME THAT CONVECTION WILL AID EAST WINDS BREAKING THRU INTO CNTRL
NM OVERNIGHT INCREASING AVBL MOISTURE. EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS CNTRL
VLYS AND NW THIS AFTN BUT IF EAST WINDS ARRIVE BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSES...COULD STILL TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION WEST OF CNTRL MTNS
THIS EVENING. WITH PROSPECT OF MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL ALSO
STICK WITH TERRAIN GENERATED ISOLD/SLGT CHC DIURNAL POPS FRIDAY AS
IN CURRENT FCST EVEN THOUGH SHOULD BE SOME LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AS HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MORE MOISTURE/CLDS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LITTLE COOLER TEMPS WEST AND SE. NERN CRNR HAS
ALREADY COOLED CONSIDERABLY TDA BUT EXPECT MINOR ADDITIONAL COOLING
FRI BEHIND FRONT. SAT IS A REAL PROBLEM IN REGARD TO EFFECTS OF
IMPULSES ROTATING OUT AHEAD OF UPR LOW WEST OF BAJA TDA WHICH WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO BY THEN. LITTLE FAITH IN MODELED
DETAILS BUT STABILITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WHILE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD BRING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PLAINS INTO NERN CRNR NM. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT
STATEWIDE FOR SAT WITH SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL COOLING WEST.

FOR EXTENDED...NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAK SURGES DOWN THE PLAINS AT TIMES IN THIS REGIME SO WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS EAST SLOPES EASTWARD AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WEST OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS UP AND DOWN EAST BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF SEASONAL WHILE
WEST SHOULD AVERAGE BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MJF

ABQ BB 057/085 056/081 053 32111
SAF BB 049/080 047/077 044 32222
TCC BB 055/080 055/080 055 32511

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-172030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1000 AM MDT THU MAY 17 2001

NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE EASTCENTRAL PLAINS.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...THE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, COUPLED WITH A LOW
LEVEL EAST TO WEST UPSLOPE FLOW, WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE EASTCENTRAL PLAINS.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
UNION...HARDING...QUAY...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...COLFAX...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND GUADALUPE.

COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
NONE.

COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS
MAY BE REQUIRED...
NONE.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE, NM
1255 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2001

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1242 PM    HOLMAN                    NM   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/17/01   MORA                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

1252 PM    CAPULIN                   NM   .75 INCH HAIL
05/17/01   UNION                          REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVERS

CA