Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 PM MDT FRI JUN 23 2000

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO EASTERN
WYOMING. SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS A FEW -TSRA OVER EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH DEVELOPEMENT ALSO OCCURING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE BLACK HILLS...AND EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG TROF...WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED. SHORTAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER.

FOR SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN FORECAST HIGHS. FWC/MAV
GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80...WHILE FORECAST SOUNDING
FROM ETA SHOWS HIGHS AROUND 90. ALL THREE MODELS BRING COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN STRENGHT OF
SURFACE LOW...THUS THE STRENGHT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT IS DIFFERENT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON ALL THREE MODELS ARE ALSO
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY.

COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.UNR...NONE.

KC

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