Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1245 PM MDT SUN JUN 11 2000

WILL MAKE THIS EARLY...SHORT... AND SIMPLE AS WARNINGS ARE BEGINING
TO BE ISSUED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PUTS LOW OVER SE MT/NW SD WITH TROUGH EXTENDING
SWRD INTO ERN WY. 60F+ DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
WRN SD. SATELLITE INDC CU DEVELOPING ALONG MENTIONED TROUGH...WITH
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FM BLACK HILLS.

UNSTABLE ATMO OVER CWFA WITH SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER SD. SEE SPC DAY
ONE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. MVC MOVING OUT OF NEB HAS SPAWNED TSTMS
OVER S CENT SD. ROBUST SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER NW SD. GONE CHC POPS TONIGHT MOST ZONES AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SCATTERED.

IN LATER PERIODS ...MODELS NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT...BUT GENERAL
FEATURES AGREE. POTENT S/WV APPROACHES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. GOOD WAA
AHEAD...AND CAA TUESDAY. BOTH THE AVN AND NGM GUIDANCE HAS DECENT
HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVEN'T VEARED MUCH. PREFER WARMER AVN TEMPS AND
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM ON POPS.

.UNR...NONE.

MURPHY

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-WYZ057-112200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1000 AM MDT SUN JUN 11 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH DIAMETER LATER THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY...
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ALSO...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MDT...COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTR{AL SOUTH DAKOTA
MAY SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS BEYOND MIDNIGHT...UNTIL 3 AM CDT.

&&
WCJIN-WYNE

MURPHY

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