Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT MON JUL 24 2000

SFC RIDGE TO BUILD IN AND TO THE E TODAY WILL MAKE FOR QUIET WX. BY
TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH E TO SET UP RETURN FLOW OVR
ERN WY AND WRN SD. THIS COUPLED WITH H7 WAA MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STORMS IN THESE LOCATIONS...SO MENTIONED ISOLD -TSRA THERE. BY
WED AFTERNOON MDLS PROG ENOUGH H20 TO HAVE MADE IT BACK TO THE AREA
FOR LESS OF A CAP AND RESPECTABLE CAPE. THIS COUPLED WITH A WEAK YET
ADEQUATE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE BEST CHC
OF PRECIP OUT OF THE NEXT 48 HRS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
LLVL MOISTURE A LITTLE LACKING IN THE W...PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE W
WILL BE LOW AS EVAP HOGS ALOT OF IT. NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY GOOD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT AGAIN
WITH A BIAS TOWARDS FWC AND ETA SOUNDINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.UNR...NONE.
BAILEY

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