Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000

...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS
...NORTHEASTERN WY...AND SOUTHEASTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THE MOST PART.
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WAS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE SOME
CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MT
...WHICH THE MODELS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE 0-6-KM SHEAR AND CAPE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH A SUPERCELL
ALSO POSSIBLE. TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY AND WELL
INTO THE 90S ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE
BLACK HILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A DAILY CHANCE IN THE EXTENDED
AS THE JET AXIS REMAINS ALONG & JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. COMPROMISE
MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED...HOWEVER...HIGHER
VALUES WERE USED IN THE EXTENDED AS THE MRF APPEARED TO BE OVER-
DEVELOPING COOL NORTH FLOW BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.

.UNR...NONE.

BUNKERS

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