Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI JUN 23 2000

SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE NUDGED TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CARLOTTA HAS BEGUN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH UP
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR FLAGSTAFF...I CAN NOT
FIND ANY UPPER AIR FEATURES THAT WILL HELP ACTIVITY TODAY LIKE WE
HAD ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL UP OVER ONE INCH. ALSO PLENTY OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RUNNING AROUND. MODIFIED TUCSON SOUNDING FOR HIGH
OF 94 GIVES CAPE AROUND 1100 J/KG. SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON USUAL
MONSOON DIURNAL CYCLE OF MOUNTAIN BUILDERS THAT MOVE INTO THE
DESERTS. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS AGAIN TODAY BUT MOVEMENT OF
STORMS SHOULD NEGATE AND FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. MAIN AREA ON CONCERN
TODAY WILL FROM CENTRAL PIMA TO THE WESTERN PART OF COCHISE COUNTY.

CAN NOT BUY THE NGM INSISTANCE ON DRYING THINGS OUT CONSIDERING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND MCS IN SONORA TONIGHT...A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN
LAST NIGHTS...WHICH WILL SEND OUTFLOWS NORTH AND KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HIGH. ALSO GOES PW LOOPS THIS MORNINGS SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING
UP THE GULF IN RESPONE TO HURRINANE CARLOTTA. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS
TO ANSWERS. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS A
BIT AND ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING. GLUECK

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-240600-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1045 AM MST FRI JUN 23 2000

                           *CONDITIONAL*   *CONDITIONAL*
COUNTY             AREAL    PROBABILITY  RAIN GREATER THAN   STORM
                  COVERAGE   OF SEVERE     1.00      2.00    MOTION

COCHISE              29          12         29         5      E  15
GRAHAM               23          11         21         4      E  15
GREENLEE             22          11         19         5      E  15
TUCSON/ERN PIMA      36          14         32         6      E  15
TOHONO OODHAM       36          15         32         6     NE  15
SOUTHEAST PINAL      29           9         20         4      E  15
WESTERN PIMA         24           9         18         4     NE  15
SANTA CRUZ           37          19         41         7      E  15

SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHER VALUES OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RESIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON SURFACE HEATING
TO DEVELOP TODAY GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH INTO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
*****************************************************************
KEY...
AREAL COVERAGE - PERCENT OF COUNTY OR AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE
                 THUNDERSTORMS
PROB OF SEVERE - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                 REACH SEVERE LEVELS (DAMAGING WIND AND/OR
                 LARGE HAIL)
RAIN GRTR THAN - THE PROBABILITY THAT ANY ONE OF THE STORMS WILL
                 PRODUCE RAIN EXCEEDING 1 INCH OR 2 INCHES IN
                 ANY LOCATION
STORM MOTION   - GENERAL DIRECTION TO WHICH THE STORMS WILL
                 LIKELY MOVE AND SPEED IN MPH

NOTE...PRODUCT IS NOT UPDATED.
VALID TIME IS FROM 10:45 AM TO 12 MIDNIGHT OF THE DAY OF ISSUANCE.
THIS PRODUCT IS NOT TO BE USED IN PLACE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS OR WATCHES. THIS PRODUCT IS ONLY USED FOR
OUTLOOK PURPOSES. CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS MAY BE FOUND ON THE NWS
TUCSON INTERNET PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TUCSON/THUNDER/SWO.SHTML

END/

NNNN