Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2000

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MORE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
NORTH OF THE MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WAS ALSO
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...PLAN ON GOING LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY 20 POPS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FIRST PERIOD POPS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE
CHANGES THOUGH BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AT ZONE RELEASE TIME.

CHALLENGES IN LATER PERIODS DEAL WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST NEXT TWO DAYS. MOST FAVORED GENESIS REGION EXPECTED TO BE
JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WOULD
THEREFORE EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WHERE SOUTHWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SEEM MOST LIKELY
TO TRACK.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHILE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES IN AREAS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND END RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND ON STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. COOLEST READINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN 80S NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

FCSTID = 9

...FIRST PERIOD POPS BELOW SUBJECT TO CHANGE...

TUL   88  73  88  70 /  60  30  50  60
FSM   92  70  92  70 /  30  10  40  50
MLC   92  72  92  71 /  40  10  30  50
BVO   87  69  86  66 /  70  30  50  60
FYV   86  68  86  68 /  60  30  50  60
BYV   86  67  85  67 /  60  30  50  60
MIO   87  68  86  67 /  70  30  50  60
MKO   90  72  92  71 /  40  10  30  50
F10   91  73  88  70 /  50  30  50  60
HHW   93  69  94  71 /  20  10  20  40

.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.