Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

COLD FRONT IS STEADILY CHUGGING THRU THE FORECAST AREA...AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME NW TIP OF AR...MLC...JUST W OF
DFW.  HAVE SEEN SOME CONVECTION FIRE OVER SW MO DURING THE PAST 30-45
MINUTES...ALTHO CAP STILL EVIDENT FARTHER S PER 18Z LIT SOUNDING.
STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS WHETHER CAP WILL BREAK OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
AS AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN SOME.  SUSPECT THAT
CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS...POSSIBILITY GRAZING OUR FAR ERN ZONES.  BIG HAILERS
A POSSIBILITY...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E BY 06Z...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION.  EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFT MIDNIGHT AS
UPPER TROF SHIFTS E INTO THE MS VALLEY.

SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT...WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CAA CONTINUING THRU THE DAY.  SHUD BE A VERY PLEASANT LESS-HUMID DAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.  EVEN COOLER TEMPS ON TAP FOR SAT NGT...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

SLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUN AS SFC RIDGE MOVES E.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SUPRESSED TO OUR S...SO EXPECT A DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING NEXT UPPER LOW INTO
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WED.  WILL INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS FOR
WED...ALTHO MRF SUGGESTS THAT ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPPED.

FCSTID = 18
TUL   52  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   54  77  47  80 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   53  76  47  79 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   49  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   50  73  42  77 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   50  72  42  76 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   50  73  44  77 /   5   0   0   0
MKO   53  76  47  79 /  10   0   0   0
F10   52  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   55  78  50  81 /  30   0   0   0

.TUL...
AR...NONhE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JOPLIN MISSOURI TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
THIS EVENING.  COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 3 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -9 ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER...A
LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED AND
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  IF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...CAN BREAK THE CAP...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER 3 PM. STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED TO MAINTAIN A STATE OF READINESS AND
LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TULSA.