Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
300 AM CST WED NOV 1 2000

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AND TEMPS...

WATER VAPOR SHOWING INITIAL VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SECOND LOBE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES POISED TO MOVE ACROSS KS THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF UPPER JET AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE PLUME HELPING TO ALLOW
PRECIP TO KEEP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KS WHICH IS
LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS FINAL VORT LOBE SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL GO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL FOR THE MORNING
ONLY AND OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WITH ANOTHER
MILD START TO THE DAY AND STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WILL GENERALLY GO 70 TO 75 WITH THE COOLEST IN THE
NORTHCENTRAL. WINDY CONDITIONS STILL IN ORDER FOR THE NORTHCENTRAL
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON DRYING OUT THE WESTERN AREAS BY
MIDDAY BUT VARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE EAST. THE NGM IS THE
SLOWEST ON PUSHING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST WITH THE ETA/AVN A
LITTLE FASTER. A COMPROMISE WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR LINGERING
PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE INTO THE EVENING...THEN DRY
OVERNIGHT. WILL ADD A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
THIS AREA IN THE EVENING UNTIL VORT LOBE PASSES AND KEEP THE WESTERN
AREAS DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DRIER AIR WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WILL STILL
HAVE SOME CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH ON THURSDAY...BUT TEMPS TO STILL
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.TOP...NONE.

63