Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 AM CST TUE OCT 31 2000

...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO WEDNESDAY...

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER UTAH
WITH WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. UPSTREAM
WAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO EJECT THIS SYSTEM
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK WAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST KS IS INTERACTING WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FEEL THIS INITIAL AREA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA EARLY ALTHOUGH MORE COULD DEVELOP THROUGH
MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STRATUS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH CLOUDS PLUME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE THE RULE.

AS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN AREA OF
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE WEST WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS DRY PUNCH AND STRONG JET ROTATE
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL MENTION SEVERE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GROUPING AND CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF DRY
PUNCH. OVERALL...WENT WITH AN ETA/AVN SOLUTION WHICH STILL ENDS
PRECIP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE ITS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
MORNING...MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL HANG BACK ACROSS THIS
REGION INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON...SO STILL SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERN END OF
VORT LOBE SWINGS EASTWARD. FOR TEMPERATURES, WENT WITH A BLEND OF
FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
CURRENT FCST.

WILL ALSO CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AND PERSISTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH SOME SUN IN THE DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY...SHOULD
SEE sA LITTLE STRONGER WINDSPEEDS MIX DOWN AND WILL GO WITH 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

.TOP...NONE.

63

KSZ008>010-020>022-034>036-312300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  TOPEKA KS
1152 AM CST TUE OCT 31 2000

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHCENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
AFTER ABOUT 3 PM, AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH
VERY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE, THUNDERSTORMS.

MA