Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT MON APR 03 2000

IN THE UPPER LEVELS NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH SHORTWAVE PHASING WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BRANCH AND CARVING LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NGM BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EITHER ETA AND AVN WHICH ARE PRETTY SIMILAR. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO EASTERN TN
AND KY THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHILE THE MAIN VIGOROUS
LONGWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT AXIS WILL NOT SWEEP THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN STATES UNTIL LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE MODELS LIFT SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SRN MS/AL
BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN AL/GA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY LATE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DIXIE
STATES. PRECIP FIELDS FROM NGM AND AVN SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE
CONSIDERING SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT CURRENTLY EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS. ETA SHOWS MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NE WITH BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW AND PAINT VERY LITTLE PRECIP OVER MY FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH I DO THINK MOST OF THE SVR WX AND HEAVIER RAIN
WILL AFFECT MY NORTHERN ZONES (SE AL & SW GA) STILL FEEL ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT AND INSTABILITY TO THINK THAT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF POPS ALSO.

AS INDICATED IN SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAIN THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER WILL
BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA WHERE 850MB JET OF 40-55
KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION LI'S OF -2 TO POSSIBLY -6 FORECAST TO
AFFECT THIS AREA AS WELL...WHILE CAPE'S WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000+
J/KG. WILL USE WORDING OF 'SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE' IN ALL
ZONES.

MODELS PROG FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...BUT WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT STILL PRESENT WITH LAGGING LONGWAVE TROF WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF POPS IN THE ZONES FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...EVEN THOUGH MY CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH.

MARINE FORECAST: WINDS FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BY EARLY MORNING SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER STILL ASSESSING POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY...BUT
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TLH  062/068 037/070 6400
PFN  063/067 044/069 7300
DHN  061/065 036/068 7300
ABY  060/065 037/068 7400
VLD  063/069 039/069 6400

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOLLERE