Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST THU MAR 30 2000

COMPOSITE OF LATEST SURFACE AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED E-W OVER OUR NRN CWA. UPPER AND LOWER JETS NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST POOLING. 500 MB CHART
AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SUCCESSION OF RIPPLES UPSTREAM IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSED WITH ATL AND AGREED THAT FLOOD THREAT OVER OUR NRN ZONES
MAY ALREADY BE TOO IMMINENT TO ISSUE FFA. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN FOR NRN AREAS IN ZONE UPDATES. ALREADY HAVE FFS FOR BEN HILL
COUNTY...WHERE MANY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED.

SRN ZONES WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR TODAY...WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
IMAGES SHOW CLEARING UPSTREAM ENTERING WRN FL PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER DRY SLOTTING. SEVERE WEATHER A GOOD BET LATER TODAY WITH
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY.

SURFACE LOW NEAR MOB SLOWLY APPROACHING CWA. THIS SHOULD SLACKEN
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WATERS. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH TPA...WILL
REPLACE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS WITH SCEC'.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION TPA/ATL. ALL INPUT IS WELCOME.

.TLH...
AL...NONE
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

TJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1045 PM EST WED MAR 29 2000

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    SANDESTIN                 FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/29/00   WALTON                         DIME SIZE HAIL.

0704 PM    PANAMA CITY BEACH         FL   61 MPH WIND GUST
03/29/00   BAY                            SURFSIDE MIDDLE
                                          SCHOOL.

0718 PM    LYNN HAVEN                FL   WIND DAMAGE
03/29/00   BAY                            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN.

0753 PM    HONEYVILLE                FL   WIND DAMAGE
03/29/00   GULF                           LARGE TREES DOWN ON
                                          HWY 71.

NNNN

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-301745

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1230 PM THU MAR 30 2000

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTHWEST TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR MOBILE. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE AIRMASS IS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...AND COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE..THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN
VIGILANT AND REPORT ANY NON-ROUTINE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/.

MCT