Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2000

DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...CONVECTION KICKED UP WRN PANHANDLE N INTO
SE ALA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SE BIG BEND. PER LCL OBS TYPE 1
SEABREEZE (L & V) SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO TYPE 6 (SE 6-10 KTS) THIS
WENT AGAINST AFTERNOON RUC WINDS WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO HOLD ON TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. TYPE 6 FLOW (AND UNSTABLE LCL SOUNDING AND
DETAILED IN MORNING UPDATE) HELPED FOCUS CONVECTION TO INTERIOR OF
PANHANDLE AND SPREADG INTO SE ALA WITH ENUF REMNATS OF EARLIER TYPE
1 TO KICK OFF A STRONG BOOMER IN TAYLOR COUNTY IN SE BIG BEND.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE
INITIALIZED BEST. 1000-700 MB FLOW INDICATES TYPE 6 BLENDING INTO
TYPE 4 (LGT SLY BCMG SWLY) FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH FAVORS
COASTAL BIG BEND WITH GOOD CHC POPS WITH RETURN TO TYPE 1 (L& V) ON
MONDAY. BOTH ADVECT AND FOCUS MARINE MOISTURE INTO FLORIDA.
SATELLITE WITH HINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT THAT MAY MAKE IT ACROSS
CWA MONDAY. EVEN IF IT DOESNT...ASSOCD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY CROSS
NW THIRD OF CWA AND ENHANCE PRECIP AS IMPLIED BY MMESO ETA PCPN
FIELDS. THUS FORECAST CONTS SCT POPS ACROSS CWA THRU THE PD...
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS BIG BEND. RESIDUAL RAIN EACH NIGHT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY PREDAWN FOG ACROSS NORMALLY FOG PRONE
AREAS.

FWC//FAN TEMPS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW TREND.

ALSO...KEEPING ONE EYE ON STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS ECNTRL CARIB AND
ASSOCD NWD ADVECTION OF DRY AIR UP ITS W SIDE AND TOWARDS SE CWA.
BUT DONT BELIEVE AIR WILL REACH FAR ENUF NORTH TO SUPRESS CONVECTION
ON MONDAY OR INTO EARLY EFP. STILL WORTH MONITORING INTO EARLY
EFP.

MARINE: LIGHT SLY WINDS AND SEAS AOB 2 FEET WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE BY END OF PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER:NO CONCERNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH  70 93 70 92 3435
PFN  75 89 76 {89 1324
DHN  72 93 72 90 2334
ABY  72 92 72 90 3334
VLD  71 91 71 92 3435

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...

DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDING
NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST INTO
GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST TOWARDS COASTAL FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.

SPOTTERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER AND REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER OR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VhISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH OR TUNE INTO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

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