Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2000

IN THE UPPER LEVELS MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT TO THE NE AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO DROP DOWN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON
EARLY TUESDAY...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
AVN/NGM PLACING THE RELATIVELY WEAK VORT CENTER OVER N GA/ERN TN
...WHILE THE ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER AND HAS THIS FEATURE OVER
WESTERN SC/N CENTRAL GA BY 12 UTC TUE. AT ANY RATE I THINK THAT AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD THIS SHOULD SHUNT
MOST (IF ANY) OF THE AFFECTS OF THIS IMPULSE TO THE N AND E OF MY
CWFA.

AT THE SURFACE ALL MODELS WANT TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY
LIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF MY FORECAST AREA OVER THE REGION...BUT BY
TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MUCH LESS DISCERNABLE.

AS FOR THE SEABREEZE INFLUENCE... THE 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW (~10-15) FROM THE NW
OVER THE PANHANDLE SECTIONS...BUT MAINLY W OVER THE EASTERN BIG
BEND. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE W-NW FLOW AT THAT STRENGTH WARRANTS POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER BOTH THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
REGIONS. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS THAN CLIMATOLOGY...WITH PWAT VALUES ABOUT A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH BELOW CLIMO WILL GO MUCH LOWER ON POPS AND USE 20 PERCENT
OR LESS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN BIG
BEND WHERE THE AFFECTS OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT CENTER
WILL JUSTIFY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (~30% FOR TUESDAY).

GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL FOR HIGHS
AND MUCH TOO COOL FOR LOWS. WILL THEREFORE MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT HIGHS NEXT TWO DAYS UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
INLAND AREAS...MID 90S COASTAL. AND WILL RAISE LOWS A CATEGORY OR TWO.

MARINE: SCEC CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS INDICATING 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SW...BUT BECOMING W BY
EARLY TUESDAY.

FIRE WX: MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL WARRANT RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH
SUNSET...AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MONDAY DUE TO MARGINAL DURATIONS
OF LOW RH.

EXTENDED: WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

TLH 074/101 074/100  -1-2
PFN 081/095 081/095  -1-2
DHN 072/100 076/100  0102
ABY 073/100 074/100  0102
VLD 073/100 074/100  -1-2

.TLH...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES UNTIL SUNSET.
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR MAINLY INLAND ZONES MONDAY AFTN.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AFTN.

MOLLERE