Tornado Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 0800PM
LDT...

AT 1900Z WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW ROTATING ALONG CO/NM BORDER. COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF AMA WITH GOOD ACTIVITY FIRING OFF ALONG THE FRONT INTO
OKLA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW IN REGION BETWEEN MAF AND LBB WITH
TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM LBB SOUTH TO NEAR SJT...HAVING PASSED LBB
AROUND NOON. DP BEGINNING TO FALL AT SJT WITH VAD PROFILE SHOWING SW WINDS
FROM SURFACE TO 8K FT.  WILL REDUCE CHANCE OF POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
PASSAGE OF DRY LINE...BUT NOT ENTIRELY AS DRY LINE EXPECTED TO BACK UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LATEST SPC GUIDANCE FOR MDT RISK OF SEVERE IS FOCUSING ON TRIPLE
POINT IN NORTHERN TEXAS CENTERED EAST OF LBB.  12Z AVN SHOWING DOUBLE DIGIT
700H OMEGAS SLICING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WITH 12Z ETA
SHOWING 2000 PLUS CAPES IN SAME AREA. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN NEAR TRIPLE
POINT THEN RAPIDLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO CWA FORMING A
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST. WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...EXPECT GOOD
SOAKING. COLD FRONT FCSTD TO BE ON TOP OF SJT BY 09Z MONDAY AND THEN
STALL...SO EXPECT GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY PRECIP MONDAY.

LATEST MRF PROGS UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF AND DROP DUE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TO AROUND DRT BY THURSDAY EVENING.  IF THIS SCENARIO IS
CORRECT...CHANCE FOR MOISTURE IN CWA EXISTS INTO FRIDAY.  LOOKS TO GOOD TO BE
TRUE...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH.

PRELIMS...

ABI 064/077/060/082 5322
SJT 065/080/062/082 2552
JCT 067/081/064/083 4552

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-302200-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
142 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2000

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF A
ROBY TO WINCHELL LINE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...

AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND FORM A SQUALL LINE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CONCHO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. THIS EXPECTED SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST.

HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY...WHERE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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