Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH BOX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO, TX
313 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
BROWN...COLEMAN...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...SAN SABA COUNTIES...

AT 1930Z COLD FRONT STILL LINGERING IN NORTHERN TOM GREEN COUNTY.
FRONT HAS DEFINITELY SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT.  WITH GOOD CAPS AHEAD
OF FRONT...ONLY DECENT CHANCE PRECIP IN A GIVEN AREA RESTS WITH
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.  LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ACTIVITY WELL
BEHIND FRONT WITH SOME ACTIVITY FIRING UP ALONG THE FRONT. BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING GOOD HEATING AND EXPECT SOME GOOD FLARE UP
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000 AND GOOD LIS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
FORECASTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY 0900Z ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
UNCERTAIN ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY.  MESOETA PROJECTS VORT MAX TO
TAKE PRECIP OFF SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...AVN PROJECTS
VORT MAX TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA...THUS MAINTAINING CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.  OPTED TO GO WITH THE MESOETA AND ONLY KEEP SHOWER CHANCE IN
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TOMORROW MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE THIS IS LAST SHOT AT PRECIP FOR A WHILE. LATEST MRF NOT TOO
OPTIMISTIC IN THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS...
ABI 050/062/050/067 4-00
SJT 052/064/051/070 5-00
JCT 059/068/052/069 72-0

.SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.
.JCT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.

15
N
N

140-154-155-168>170-120500-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
156 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND STRETCHED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MIDLAND...TO NEAR SAN
ANGELO...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR MINERAL WELLS. A SECONDARY...
STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM NEAR LUBBOCK TO WICHITA
FALLS.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILED SOUTH OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S NORTH OF THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT.

THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE
10 BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH AND THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND INTENSIFIES.

OVER THE COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN
SABA LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WARM MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR OVERRUNS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

FURTHER NORTH AND INCLUDING THE BIG COUNTRY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

22
N
N