Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
231 PM CST THU NOV 2 2000

COLD FRONT STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWFA...AND APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING BACK NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.  SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP QUITE A BIT
ALOFT...WITH OVERRUNNING ALREADY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH TONIGHT AS
OVERRUNNING INCREASES.  MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
UPPER LOW STAYING PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT INTO WEST TEXAS.  WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND TRAINING OF STORMS LIKELY ALONG AND NEAR
THE FRONT...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING.  BEST THREAT FOR
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR CONCHO VALLEY
SOUTHWARD...WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY PRETTY SATURATED FROM EARLIER
HEAVY RAINFALL.  BIG COUNTRY MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF FRONT PULLS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT AREA OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER WARM AND AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL.  RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ABI 054/060/047/057 7852
SJT 058/061/047/057 8932
JCT 060/062/046/057 9942

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CONCHO VALLEY...HEARTLAND...EDWARDS
PLATEAU...NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN SABA...LLANO...AND FOR THE COLORADO
RIVER (BALLINGER SOUTHWARD) T[HROUGH TONIGHT.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022355-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
206 PM CST THU NOV 2 2000

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...SAN SABA LINE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS OVERRUNS
A WEAK COLD FRONT.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL....MAINLY SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD LINE. IN THIS AREA...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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