Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BNDRY ENTERING NWRN BIG COUNTRY/FAR NWRN CONCHO VLLY
ACCORDING TO VSBL SATELLITE LOOPS/SFC OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THE BNDRY TO
SLOW DOWN TO A CRAWL OR STALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SERN BIG CNTRY
AND NWRN CONCHO VLLY DUE TO DAYTIME EFFECTS AND APPROACH OF POSITIVELY
TILTED VORT LOBE. UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCREASE TSTM CHANCES SLIGHTLY
AND MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE ACROSS THE SERN BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VLLY/
HEARTLAND. STEERING WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BE UNDER 15 KTS...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-272300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

AT EARLY AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR WICHITA
FALLS...TO NORTH OF ABILENE...TO STERLING CITY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
70 DEGREES.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TEXAS...THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...EXTENDING FROM OZONA...TO NEAR SAN
ANGELO...TO BALLINGER...TO CROSS PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SNYDER...
TO MERTZON...TO OZONA. SOME STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
BIG COUNTRY...THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SINCE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY HERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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