Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. LATEST GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF AZ...OVER NW MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL OPEN UP AND PHASE WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THE SOUTHERN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS W TX EARLY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE
ARKLATEX BY 12Z MONDAY. AS THE UPPER TROF ADVANCES EAST TODAY...
EXPECT A DRYLINE TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SQUALL LINE FORMATION. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
INSTABILITY AND LOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS FAVORING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...PER SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK.

SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT WC TX BY MID TO LATE EVENING. WITH
RELATIVELY DRY WEST WINDS ON MONDAY...WILL KEEP THE THIRD PERIOD DRY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AVN/MRF HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
IN DIGGING THIS TROF INTO THE DESERT SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAPID
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WC TX SHOULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROF THEN EJECTS EAST...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO WC
TX WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS
ON TARGET.

PRELIMS...
ABI 068/049/069/049 530-
SJT 070/050/071/048 420-
JCT 071/052/073/047 530-

.SJT...NONE

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-051535-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A HASKELL TO SWEETWATER TO
SONORA LINE.  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST...EXITING THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING.  DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.  HOWEVER...
WITH THE GROUND SATURATED FROM SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED..

THIS OUTLOOK WILL RESUME SCHEDULED ISSUANCE ON MARCH 15 2001.
HOWEVER... THIS OUTLOOK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

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