Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2000

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM NEAR SAN SABA TO SONORA TO
SOUTH OF OZONA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH MAIN CONCENTRATION OVER EASTERN COUNTIES.  CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON.  ALOFT...MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO KANSAS WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX PUSHING
INTO EAST TEXAS.  ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA CAUSING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS RATHER TRICKY.  MODELS NOT HANDLING THE SURFACE
FRONT WELL AT ALL...WITH NGM THE WORST. FRONT ALREADY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN MODELS INDICATED.  THINK FRONT WILL FINALLY SLOW AND STALL OUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  THE NEXT VORT MAX IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
AFTERNOON HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN AND VORT MAX APPROACHES
LATER TONIGHT.  MANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION...AND DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  WILL FOCUS HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT.  SLOW STEERING CURRENTS...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEAR THE
FRONT.  AM CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR CROCKETT COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY SINCE PARTS OF THE AREA SAW FLOODING
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.  WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING.  WILL LIKELY ISSUE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.  FRONT SHOULD WAS OUT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.  EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF BOUNDARIES WILL
DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES.

ABI 067/085/069/090 3210
SJT 069/088/068/091 3210
JCT 070/086/070/090 6410

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. ZONES 76-78...168-170.

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