Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2000

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING OVER THE HEARTLAND WITH A FEW
WEAKER STORMS FROM ELDORADO TO BRADY ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE THE STORMS WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AS UPPER FORCING/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LESSEN. COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT QUICKLY TODAY AS LEE
TROFFING DEVELOPS ABRUPTLY ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
APPROACHING S/WV. ASIDE FROM LEFTOVER SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP IT
DRY TODAY AS MODELS FORECAST MID LEVEL DRYING...ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND 700 MB THETA-E TROF DEVELOPING OVERHEAD.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE OVER NWRN ZONES WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LEAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TX PNHDL/NWRN OK BY 12Z/FRI
WHILE A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER W-CNTRL TX. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR MILD MINIMUMS. BELIEVE TSRA
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY.

FRI...THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEAR LBB INTO SWRN OK IN THE
AFTERNOON...JUST NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW. BELIEVE TSRA WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR NRN CNTYS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO SELY WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENTS SUPPORTING 15-25 MPH WIND SPEEDS.

FRI NIGHT/SAT...MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SLY...KEEPING THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONT NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THRU SAT MORNING IN SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE FRONT FORECAST
BY THE AVN TO REMAIN OVER THE TX PNHDL/SRN OK...BELIEVE SAT WILL REMAIN DRY
OVER W-CNTRL TX WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRI.

PRELIMS...
ABI 089/072/091/072 00--
SJT 091/073/093/073 1000
JCT 087/072/089/072 1000

.SJT...NONE.
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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-151440-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
536 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.  AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO THE AREA.  ALSO...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL HELP INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED..

FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE
PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT
LBBSPSLBB. FOR THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT OKCSPSOKC.
FOR THE NORTH TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT FTWSPSFTW. FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT SATSPSSAT.

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