Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

ZONAL FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL RIPPLES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF AREA HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD A
BIT BUT WILL PROBABLY SAG SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT. MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM GULF HAS ALREADY PUT 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE RED RIVER
NORTH OF DFW. SHORTWAVES AND SPEED MAXES WILL COMBINE WITH FRONT TO
PROVIDE AN EXPECTED RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN/TSRA TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I 20 UP TOWARDS THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR.

WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BASED ON LOCAL HYDROLOGIC
ADVICE AND UNCERTAINTY OF ACTUAL BULLSEYE POSITIONS. A REASSESSMENT
MAY BE GOOD ADVICE FOR THE 9 PM UPDATE AS THE EVENT WILL PROBABLY BE
GETTING TOGETHER AND ANOTHER MODEL RUN WILL BE TRICKLING IN.
COORDINATION WITH FTW...THEY ARE CONCERNED WITH TRAINING ECHOES
PARALLELING THE FRONT TONIGHT. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO TO BE SURE...BUT
THE HIGHEST QPF COMES FROM THE ETA. THE 18Z MESOETA IS NOT AS
AGGRESIVE AND SHOWS A PRIME VORT MAX PASSING THE AREA QUICKLY FROM A
POSSIBLE PRECIP ONSET OF 05Z TO BEING NEAR DEQUEEN AT 09Z AND NORTH
OF ELD AT 12Z...THUS LEAVING PERSISTENT NVA OVER AREA OF CONCERN.
COORD WITH LIT REVEALS THEY ARE GOING WITH MENTIONING SOME HEAVY
RAINS IN ZONES WITHOUT A WATCH...WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE CARRYING AND
WHAT I AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH.

I HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE AVN FOR THIS CYCLE WHILE KEEPING EYE ON
MESOETA IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM A GUIDANCE MEAN BUT I
WILL LEAN TOWARDS HAVING CONSISTENCY WITH ^PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

PRELIMS...

SHV 58/76/53/74 4532
MLU 54/76/53/74 3532
TXK 52/68/52/71 6532
TYR 60/75/52/75 4522
LFK 60/80/57/78 4522

.SHV...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    MIRA                      LA   1 INCH HAIL
03/29/00   CADDO                          REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS

0553 PM    PLAIN DEALING             LA   .75 INCH HAIL
03/29/00   BOSSIER                        REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS

0635 PM    SHREVEPORT                LA   .75 INCH HAIL
03/29/00   CADDO                          REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTERS

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