Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT THU OCT 5 2000

ALL EYES ON THE APPROACH OF STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING AND END TO THIS
LATE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY IN ALMOST THE EXACT POSITION
IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...FROM NEAR CDS AND PNC ONTO SGF. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP DRAMATICALLY WITH SECONDARY FRONT SPILLING COLD
AIR INTO KS AND INTO THE EXTREME OK/TX PHNDLS. 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOW
EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ALL OF LOUISIANA WHERE DENSE
OVC HAS HAD TROUBLE BREAKING THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SE TX/SW LA
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WHERE HEATING HAS MIXED OUT
OVERCAST.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ETA THIS FCST AS IT HAS HAD THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY. HAVING SAID THIS...ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/THETA E CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC AND IN 1000-850MB LAYER PROFILES.
COUPLE THIS WITH STRETCHED VORTICITY AXIS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RIGHT REAR JET DYNAMICS IN NE TX/SE OK/SW AR TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES POOLING ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA WILL WARRANT MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NW TNGT. PLAN
IS TO GO LIKELY POPS TNGT FROM I-20 NORTH WITH LATE MENTIONING ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. WILL HOLD OFF HIGH POPS UNTIL SECOND PERIOD DOWN SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
POST-FRONTAL OVERRUNNING PATTERN NOT LOOKING AS STRONG A POSSIBILITY BUT WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT
WARRANTS CAUTION WORDING ALL ZONES FRIDAY FOR WINDS.

TEMPS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FROM HERE ON OUT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY MOST LIKELY FELT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING EXCEPT DOWN SOUTH WHERE TEMPS COULD REBOUND A BIT.
FOR THAT REASON...WILL KEEP SECOND PERIOD HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO FIRST PERIOD
LOWS WORDING THEM NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS COLD AIR CUMULUS ALWAYS STUBBORN WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.

THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS ONLY...13
SHV 69/71/50/57 7631  MLU 69/74/49/56 6731  TXK 64/66/47/56 7521
TYR 67/71/51/58 6531  LFK 72/76/52/59 5742

.SHV...NONE.