Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AM INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
OVER N AND E TX...ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND S MS AND AL FROM NORTHWEST OF
KDFW TO BETWEEN KOCH AND KLFK...TO KIER/NATCHITOCHES/...AND
KHEZ/NATCHEZ. THIS WAVEY FRONT CONTINUED TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF SC. THE BOUNDARY WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US THAT STRETCHED
FROM CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE
WESTERN US WHILE A TROUGH REMAINDED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THROUGHT THE SHORT TERM THE EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS AS
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND THROGUH ITS BASE.

FOR TODAY WILL SEE ALMOST A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
SENDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS
IS MOVES INTO THE REGION IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM NEAR ONE AND ONE HALF
TO NEAR TWO INCHES...SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES...CAPES
OF UP TO 1500 TO 2000...AND REGION OF INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE AND WILL INCLUDE IN MOST ALL ZONES. WHERE RAINFALL DOES
OCCUR...AMOUTS WILL BE HEAVY DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AM LOOKS AS IF THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM SE OK ACROSS NE TX
AND INTO W AND CENTRAL LA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTHEAST
TX...SW AR...AND SE OK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND OTHER
SECTIONS/CENTRAL AND S/BY MID DAY TO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE SHORT WAVES DEEPEN THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE TROUGH
DIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST DURING THE NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A
LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
AND WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES COOLER TEMPERATURES.

06

PRELIMS...

SHV 094/071/091/070 4331
MLU 093/071/092/069 3332
TXK 092/069/090/068 5321
TYR 094/072/092/070 4331
LFK 096/071/093/070 4332

.SHV...OZONE ACTION DAY SATURDAY FOR USUAL COUNTIES OF NE TX.

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-221400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES
OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

AT 800 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR IN SHREVEPORT CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT
SMITH ARKANSAS ONTO NEAR WILBURTON...ANTLERS AND HUGO OKLAHOMA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD WEAKENED IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT OVER
THE LAST HOUR...HOWEVER...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND THE SURROUNDING RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL RADIO STATION OR
TV STATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.