Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2000

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 27/18Z SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS NEAR
WICHITA FALLS. LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
WICHITA FALLS TO ABILENE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR WICHITA FALLS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DIMINISHING OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS JUST WEST OF CHEROKEE COUNTY. TORNADO WATCH JUST
ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. PROBLEM TODAY
IS HOW FAST WILL THE RAIN MOVE THROUGH AND THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAIN SHORTWAVE WITH FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PERPETUATE A SQUALL LINE INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FORM AN MCS BY THE TIME IT
REACHES NORTH LOUISIANA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL PUT HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING IN ZONES OVER ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT. BECAUSE EXACT
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HARD TO DETERMINE WILL NOT ISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH DALLAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AROUND MID EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

MODELS MOVE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY
AND BRING WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY BY AFTERNOON. HOT
AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD TAKE HOLD MEMORIAL DAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW.  09

SHV 70/91/65/93 5300
MLU 72/91/66/93 5300
TXK 68/88/64/91 6200
TYR 69/90/65/94 5100
LFK 73/92/66/94 4200

.SHV...NONE.